US President Trump issued a shocking surprise on the 7th, attracting high attention from global technology industries. However, the market response is intriguing. The price of Apple and Taiwan Electric stocks, which are considered to be the first to be the first to fall, but have risen all the way.
The key is the "exemption clause" issued by Trump simultaneously, pointing out that as long as companies use U.S. factories and announce increased investment in U.S. countries, they can obtain tax exemptions, allowing the market to relax. However, the details and applicable scope of the exemption clause are still variables that need attention in the future. Taiwan Electric holds ace in hand, and AI chip demand is boomingAlthough no details have been announced yet, it is worth noting that semiconductor analysts pointed out that TEK has strong demand for advanced processes and high irreplaceability, and is actually not affected by this wave of impact. In addition, market news also pointed out that the expected price of 3nm process in 2026, "Taiwan Electric may become a 'seller' market' and have more guidance."
He further analyzed that even if the AI chips made by Taiwan Power are not exempted from tax, the tax costs will be borne by customers. In addition, because major cloud service providers (CSPs) are launching AI military competitions, the demand for AI servers is booming, and the demand for AI chips will continue to be strong, and there may even be room for price.
The product advantages of relatively advanced processes, the power and world-leading process may face cost pressure. Currently, the 12-nanometer FinFET process with Intel in Arizona, the United States may be expected to pass the tax damage; while the World Advanced Chairman and Strategic Chief Strategy said in April that it may not consider building factories in the United States.
▲ Telecom is currently working with Intel in Arizona, USA to produce 12-nanometer FinFET processes. (Source: Technology News)
In addition to the exemption clause, two major concerns for manufacturing in the United StatesThe analyst pointed out that in this wave of 100% tax, "Made in the United States" has two other major focuses on the exemption clauses. First of all, it is the server manufacturing manufacturer location, because the current US server manufacturing factories are mostly distributed in Mexico, and some are in Southeast Asia.
Trump announced on July 31 that Mexico will maintain 25% of taxes on the United States and will be delayed by 90 days, so the tax rate that server manufacturers must face is still full of variables.
Second, it is the invisible bottle head of advanced packaging in the United States. Telco defines advanced packaging process below seven nanometers, and advanced packaging process below five nanometers will need to be matched with advanced packaging. For example, NVIDIA's GPU will be equipped with high-frequency wide memory (HBM), which will require advanced packaging technology.
In March, NTU announced an expansion of US$165 billion in investment in the United States. The currently built factories are still mainly based on advanced process lines. The advanced packaging factory has not yet been started and is expected to be built in 2026 and 2027. At the same time, Amkor, a leading packaging manufacturer in the United States, has no news of its capacity to expand. With the continuous expansion of advanced manufacturing, "the production capacity of advanced packaging and advanced processes in the United States may not grow in the same way."
▲ In March this year, Taiwan Electric Chairman Wei Zhejia (Chinese) and US President Trump (left) convened a reporter meeting in White House and announced a 100 billion US dollars in crypto investment. (Source: Flickr/The White House CC BY 2.0)
Unlike the Taiwan power supply model, the Apple supply chain may not go to the United States?In addition to Trump, the other protagonist of this reporter will be the Apple executive chief Tim Cook, who also announced that he will invest $100 billion in the United States with a bonus. As for Apple's increased investment, will it lead Taiwanese businessmen from the listed stocks to the United States? "Apple will calculate the bill, and of course Taiwan will do it." After all, the cost is still the biggest consideration.
▲ Apple executive chief Kuck announced that he would invest $100 billion in the United States. (Source: Baigong)
Unless it is high-precision manufacturing, enterprises still need to consider the higher labor costs in the United States. In particular, there is a technical separation between manufacturing and software. On the other hand, whether there are so many people in the United States to invest in manufacturing is also a place that needs to be evaluated.
He also pointed out that in particular, Apple and Taiwan Electric's operating modes are very different. "Apple's business model is product sales and software services, which is different from the NTD's wafer factory operation model." In particular, Apple's main hardware manufacturing end is almost not in the United States. It has become accustomed to such a operation model and has significantly driven the trend of supply chains, which is still to be watched.
On the other hand, the announcement of the US subsidiary GWA station stable Apple supply chain bulbs, this two-party cooperation can be said to be perfectly in line with Trump's needs and is a classic "site-to-side" example. The bulb mainly produces blank crystals and is supplied to taiwan. This integration means that Apple is undergoing "upstream management".
Considering that Apple's big-name investments and handing over Globe Crystals made a perfect demonstration of the "American Manufacturing Spirit". Next, will Kuke have the opportunity to discuss the "Apple Terms" with Trump? This is expected to bring great benefits to the supply chain and the market is paying close attention.
Extended reading: Trump sacrifices chips 100% tax, aesthetician: NT$ may be exempted first